A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
