🔗 Share this article

Just eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.

As per the data, in only two games have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.